The U.S. National Weather Service says there continues to be a good chance of major flooding at Pembina, North Dakota and into Manitoba this spring.

Water has begun to make its way up the Red River in the southern basin thanks to a record-setting February thaw, but that water won't have a huge impact on this year's flood situation, according to Greg Gust, Warning Co-ordination Meteorologist.

"There's not a lot of water in the far southern part of the Red River Valley, south of Grand Forks and Fargo and areas south. While there was quite a bit of rain last fall, snow in those areas melted quickly and there wasn't a lot of it on the landscape."

The big snow pack this winter has been sitting in the northeast corner of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota and some of that water has moved into fields, ditches and smaller streams but the cooler weather has slowed its progression into the Red.

"We have minor to moderate flooding in the far southern end and moderate to major flood risk in the north end and into Manitoba," said Gust. "We have a 50 per cent probability of hitting 51 1/2 feet at the Pembina/Emerson junction which would be similar to the amount of water that pushed across the border in 2006. Amounts that are higher than that are 2009, 2011 and 1997."

Gust says there is a 25 per cent chance of waters reaching 2009 levels -- one of the largest floods in recent times on both sides of the border.

"I don't think we're going to get there at this point, but it's still a risk because it's still winter which means the possibility of even more snow and even some rain before it all goes through."

Meanwhile, Manitoba has begun ice-breaking operations on more than 25 kilometres of Red River ice north of Selkirk as part of its annual flood mitigation work. The work is done to prevent ice jams during the spring melt.

The province is expected to release its spring flood forecast next week.