The National Weather Service in Grand Forks is reporting favourable weather in late February and March has reduced the threat of major flooding in northeast North Dakota. Meteorologist Greg Gust says right now it looks like the Red River at Pembina should hit the moderate flood stage, cresting at about 45 feet, similar to the spring of 2013.

Gust says it has been a most unusual spring thaw south of the border, which has contributed to a more favourable flood forecast. He notes there has been very little in the way of significant precipitation since late February. And because of melting conditions, the snowpack is largely gone south of Drayton. Gust says what is interesting, is the runoff snuck under the ice along the Red River. In the process, this lifted the ice eight to twelve feet.

Gust says over the last few weeks they have seen the Red River rise into the low end of Minor Flood Stage, then drop back down and now it's about to rise again.

"The next big surge should be coming this weekend with thawing conditions across the area and overnight low temperatures above the thawing point," reports Gust. "That should start to really eat into the remaining snow and ice that's around here and get it moving."

Gust says the outlook across northeast North Dakota, including the Devils Lake basin, Park River and Pembina River is still for moderate to major flooding. He notes they have issued a Flood Watch for Grafton. The river there is expected to crest at 14 to 16 feet around April 1st, where 14.5 feet is considered Major Flood Stage. Over in northeast Minnesota at Hallock, they are expecting minor to moderate flooding.

"Moderate flooding is where it's starting to impact a little bit of the transportation corridors," says Gust. "Not the kind of flooding that spreads out and takes over the interstates or anything like that. So we shouldn't be cutting off bridge access or anything like that at this point."

Though the threat of major flooding is diminishing, Gust warns water levels will still be high. He says they expect overland flooding around Neche.

Gust anticipates the Red River will crest at Grafton in early April and then at Pembina at least one week later.

He notes the seven to ten-day forecast should help to lessen the flood threat.