After five consecutive months of cooler than normal weather, it appears that trend is about to finally change. David Phillips, Senior Climatologist with Environment Canada says southern Manitoba is in store for a summer that is hotter than normal.

Environment Canada considers June 1st the official start of summer. And, Phillips says we can expect a lot of heat for the summer months of June, July and August. He cautions that it might take a bit to get there in early June, but the rest of the month will more than make up for it. In fact, Phillips expects each of the months this summer will end up being hotter than normal.

According to Phillips, Steinbach typically gets 13 days each summer where the mercury reaches 30 degrees. In case you forgot, last year we had 34 such days, while the summer of 2020 produced 19. Phillips says his hunch is that Steinbach will have more than 13 days of 30 degrees this year but he doubts we can hit 20 of those.

As for precipitation, it would appear some relief is in sight from this trend of very wet weather. Phillips says though their forecast is for a summer that is wetter than normal in northern Manitoba, they are forecasting near-normal precipitation this summer for the southern part of the province.

For those wondering whether there is any historical correlation between a harsh winter, followed by a hot summer, Phillips says unfortunately our weather does not work that way.

"One season does not give you a clue as to what the next season is going to be," he notes.

However, Phillips says the lone exception might be the transition from winter to spring. He notes a harsh Manitoba winter with a lot of snow on the ground can result in spring-like weather being slow to arrive because of what it takes to first melt that snowpack.

"Just because you have a nasty winter, nature doesn't look at you and say, 'okay I feel sorry for you, I'm going to give you a great summer, drier and sunny and warm and great for growing crops.' No no, I wish it was that way because we'd have this thing all figured out," he says.

Phillips says southern Manitoba has now had back-to-back extremes, when referring to our spring weather. He notes last spring was one for the record books with how dry it was, and then this spring was just the opposite. In fact, according to Phillips, Steinbach recorded 2.5 times the amount of precipitation as normal for the months of April and May.

"These series of Colorado lows just came one right after another, lined up like jumbo jets in the airport tarmac and they just kept coming one after another, crossing the province and bringing copious amounts of precipitation," he recalls.

When you look at May alone, there were 19 days with at least a trace of rain, when normally there are 10. And there were five "really heavy wet days," which is how Phillips refers to days with more than 10 millimetres of rain. In an average month of May, Steinbach will have two of those days.

As was mentioned, the month of May was the fifth consecutive month where the average temperature ended up being below normal. Phillips says the average daytime high in Steinbach was about two degrees below average.

With the most recent Colorado low now in the rearview mirror, Phillips says the next six days look to be dry. He notes though the next week might not be warmer than normal, we will certainly get close. The normal high for this time of year is 23 degrees. Phillips anticipates we will see temperatures in the low 20s again by later this week.