Fall officially arrives at 8:54 this evening.

Jack Burnett, Managing Editor with The Old Farmer's Almanac says it should be a normal fall for southern Manitoba. He points to October being about two degrees warmer than normal, with about 10 millimetres more rain than average. Then November should be about three degrees colder than normal but average precipitation.

The start of winter is still three months away, but if you are looking for the best time to head south, you may want to consider the last half of January. Burnett says our winter in southern Manitoba looks to be cold and snowy, with the last two weeks of January being the harshest stretch.

Burnett says the coldest parts of winter should be the last half of December, the first ten days of January and then the last half of January. As for precipitation, he says December and January should each see about 20 millimetres more than normal, while February, March and April look to each have 10 millimetres more than average. As for the snowiest stretches of winter, Burnett says we can expect that during the first half of December, the last half of January, the last week of February and the last half of April. Burnett says though we will see some snowstorms this winter, it looks like we could be spared from any blizzards.

Not all weather agencies agree with the weather forecast of The Old Farmer's Almanac. For example, earlier this month David Phillips with Environment Canada suggested that an El Nino growing in the Pacific could result in a winter that is milder than normal for southern Manitoba. Burnett says the strength of that El Nino will play a role in our winter weather.

"We expect it to develop slightly but usually what happens is that it really has to develop a lot in order to mean warm winters for Canada," explains Burnett. "And we don't see it developing as strongly as perhaps other people do."

Looking ahead to the spring and summer of 2019, Burnett says they are calling for a spring that is cooler and wetter than normal for southern Manitoba, while it appears our summer will have near normal temperatures but it will be drier than an average summer.

When it comes to making forecasts, Burnett says they rely on a recipe that was first used by Robert B. Thomas in 1792. Burnett says when Thomas first started making weather forecasts he took three things into consideration. The first factor is meteorology, which is the localized weather phenomenon that is caused by factors such as mountains, lakes or localized winds.

The second factor is climatology, which is long-term weather patterns for a particular area. And the third factor is solar science.

Burnett says through the use of computers, they can find a pattern in history where the weather trends then resemble patterns today. Then, by learning what happened next in history, they can determine what is most likely to happen in our future.

According to Burnett, The Old Farmer's Almanac is about 80 per cent accurate.